The unbridled growth of electric driving is unsustainable

A story about bare raw materials quickly becomes boring. Hang it on the electric car and the scarce raw materials are suddenly on everyone’s doorstep, Theo Henckens begins his story

It seems a given that electric cars will continue to roll off the assembly line at breakneck speed. New cars with a combustion engine will no longer be allowed to be sold from 2035, and electric cars are also more energy efficient, cheaper to maintain and useful for storing excess solar energy. The downside: the large use of raw materials.

Henckens, who obtained his PhD in 2016 on scarce raw materials after a career as an environmental scientist, uses two principles: the world population will continue to grow to 10 billion, and everyone should be able to enjoy the prosperity that EU residents now enjoy. In the EU there are now 68 cars per 100 people, so that means 6.8 billion e-cars (compared to 1.4 billion cars now).

The second principle in particular says something about Hencken’s worldview, but how realistic is that? Also, according to some recent population projections, the maximum has been reached at 8 billion. These tricks do not make Henckens’ story any less interesting or pressing, as it contains too much sensational information about raw materials that he carefully spoons out and calculates.

An electric car contains various metals that are new compared to the fuel car: cobalt, lithium and rare earth metals. Four metals are used in much larger quantities: aluminum, barium, copper and nickel.

A truckload of waste

What does this cover entail? Take copper, of which an average electric car contains 120 kilos. For that much usable metal, fifteen times as much ore is needed: 15 to 20 tons. For every car that is a full truck of mine waste. And then the rest of the metals. The size of the car makes a big difference: an SUV contains up to four times the amount of each metal compared to a small car.

That hunger is unsustainable. Already, 10 percent of the energy supply is needed for the mining, transport and processing of raw materials. This increases as the ore concentration decreases. Let’s look at copper mining in Chile: 13 percent more copper was produced there in 2010 than in 2001, but that required 50 percent more energy.

For most commodities the story is just as dramatic as for copper. Fortunately not for lithium – an indispensable light and efficient energy carrier in car batteries. Yes, production has increased dramatically, but inventories are also high.

The focus of the book lies in providing insight into scarcity. Expectations about future (battery) technologies, recycling and car use are vaguer. While a lot depends on this, Henckens also knows: “There are technical solutions. The challenge is to implement them quickly. If we wait for the market we will be late.”

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