Republicans in Virginia are testing an abortion position that doesn’t keep them losing

“When it comes to abortion, it seems like all we can do is lose,” sighs Pam Haner. She is standing with about a hundred Republicans in the parking lot of an industrial estate just outside Richmond, the capital of the American state of Virginia. Provided with cucumber water, lemonade and a cheese buffet, the local party branch will meet here for the last time before this Tuesday’s elections.

Because Virginia’s electoral district boundaries have recently been redrawn, all members of the state House of Representatives and Senate must be re-elected. Abortion plays a central role in election campaigns. Which party manages to win here thanks to – or despite – this issue, can be an important indicator for national elections from November next year.

When, in June 2022, the Supreme Court struck down the federal right to abortion after fifty years and referred legislation on this matter back to the fifty states, it was a colossal victory for the most conservative Republicans. In several states where they have control, legislation for a total ban was already ready and was immediately introduced. Other states introduced a six-week limit until abortion is allowed, when women often do not yet know they are pregnant.

But since that court decision the party lost election after election where abortion was a central theme. Whenever voters are directly asked for their opinion on whether they believe women should be allowed to choose whether or not to terminate an unwanted pregnancy, they vote in favor of that right. The pro-choice movement revives and the pro-life movement is punished electorally.

Distressing examples

Additionally, the overall number of abortions in the United States increased after the Supreme Court ruling, according to a count by the Society of Family Planning. Women in conservative states are now more likely to rely on pills that allow them to terminate their pregnancies at home or travel to another state. Some examples are poignant, such as that of a ten-year-old girl from Ohio who was raped and had to move to a neighboring state for an abortion because of the stricter law. Virginia is the last state in the southeastern US where someone like her can still go. The number of abortions increased in one year from 2,160 to 3,170 per month.

Republican Haner, a retired primary school teacher in a thick red turtleneck, says he does not think abortion is such a relevant issue. According to her, the topic in predominantly Democratic-voting Virginia is as toxic as her in fact party leader, Donald Trump. “We better not talk about it.”

Yet her party has made the issue itself central to this campaign. Glenn Youngkin, the popular Republican governor of Virginia whose presidential ambitions are the subject of much speculation, has introduced a bill to limit legal abortion to 15 weeks. “A reasonable compromise,” he calls it when asked about it. Most Americans are in favor of the right to abortion, but also in favor of limiting the period until which this is allowed, according to polls. Populist Republicans and right-wing media personalities say Democrats want to abort children even after birth. Youngkin pays almost one and a half million dollars for ads that Democrats label as extremist. The Democrats are hitting back with mockery claim that Republicans want to lock up women and doctors. Fear should be a motivation for both camps to vote.

Yet in his speech to the hundred Republicans in Richmond, Youngkin follows Haner’s advice and doesn’t say a word about it. He also never mentions the persecuted Trump. He prefers to talk about tax cuts, fighting crime and the right of parents to have full control over their children’s education – such as what books they read and what sex education they receive. With that theme, he won the 2021 gubernatorial election in the state that voted largely for Joe Biden a year earlier. Now he hopes to keep the House in Virginia Republican and win the Senate from the Democrats.

‘A law like in Europe’

One Republican candidate in Virginia keeps talking about abortion in her campaign. Senator Siobhan Dunnavant, who is hoping to be re-elected just north of Richmond, is a gynecologist and a driving force behind the 15-week limit. “No ban,” is her slogan. “My work with mothers and babies has made me very empathetic to abortion situations,” she explains after the meeting with Youngkin in the parking lot.

“We are dealing with a 50-year-old law in Virginia that authorizes unlimited abortion,” says Dunnavant. In fact, Virginia allows abortion up to 26 weeks, but if three doctors find that continuing a pregnancy is a danger to the woman, later exceptions are possible. “I am on the side of science. Nowadays we can save a child’s life so much sooner without endangering the mother’s that the current law is really dated. I grant women a reasonable, but limited choice to decide whether they want to have a child. Just like in European countries.”

In the Netherlands, abortion is legal up to 22 weeks, but in Germany, France and Spain the period is shorter than Dunnavant proposes for Virginia. Dunnavant also wants to leave room for exceptions after the deadline has expired, in the event of a life-threatening situation for the mother or child. “I offer a compromise.” Her campaign is the ultimate test of whether it is possible to reach consensus on this issue that so deeply divides an already polarized America.

Is this the way Republicans can win back moderate Democrats or independent voters? Marjorie Dannenfelser, an anti-abortion activist and one of the driving forces behind the Supreme Court case that ended the federal right to abortion, thinks so.

“In the blue state of Virginia, Republicans are providing a roadmap for tackling abortion, not only at the state level, but also at the federal level,” wrote the president of the organization Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America in an email. “They have exposed their Democratic opponents as the real extremists who do not set limits on abortion.” According to her, the elections on Tuesday can prove “that abortion is not the panacea of ​​the left.”

Dunnavant’s re-election appears to depend on it. Her district, Henrico, has been redrawn so that it is half a donut north of progressive Richmond. The rural, conservative part of her former constituency has been redeployed, leaving her serving only the suburbs. Where the key to electoral success in the US lies.

In one of those suburbs her Democratic challenger Schuyler VanValkenburg is also campaigning. At least, he tries. Behind the twelve doors where he rings the doorbell on a warm and sunny Sunday, only the dogs knock. Nobody opens the door. When he does speak to voters, he says, it is mainly about abortion. “I notice tension and fear among voters who fear that a fundamental right is being taken away from them. It is a great incentive for people to vote and for volunteers to work on the campaign.”

The only voter he encounters in the residential area of ​​brick row houses with neat lawns, a 75-year-old woman who only wants to share her first name, Sandy, does not like the Democrat. But she also isn’t excited about a limit on abortion. “I am conservative and make my decisions based on my Christian faith. So I think abortion is wrong,” she says. “But I especially believe that the state should not interfere with people’s private lives, so I believe that others should have the freedom to choose abortion.”

Conversations with young women in a busy park nearby show that they think differently and do not trust the Republicans with the subject. Ellie Fore, a social work student, calls Youngkin and Dunnavant’s proposal “a sliding scale.” “As soon as they get their foot in the door at fifteen weeks, there will be initiatives to further restrict the right to abortion.” Nurse Lanita Poe fears that more Republican power in the state means decline, she says. “They want to reverse all kinds of progress.”

But at the Republican meeting, Pam Haner is optimistic. Her own daughter, she says, usually votes for Democrats because of social issues like abortion. “Because she can live well with a fifteen-week limit, I managed to convince her to vote for the Republicans this time, because of the economy.”

If pro-choice women find fifteen weeks acceptable, the Republicans can win back the peripheral municipalities. Haner: “If Youngkin and Dunnavant manage to win these elections, we as Republicans can win everything again. Then the road to the White House is open.” Although, like many Republican backers, she would rather see her own governor than Trump make a run for it.

Above all, Haner would like the issue of abortion to be dealt with one way or another, “so that we can finally talk about something else.”

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