Poland wants to form the largest army in Europe

More than a thousand tanks, at least 148 attack helicopters, about the same number of fighter jets and hundreds of infantry vehicles, artillery pieces, missiles, several submarines, three frigates and six Patriot air defense systems.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Poland has started shopping seriously. This is not a wish list from the Central European country, these are signed purchase contracts for equipment that should be available to the Polish army in the coming years.

In recent years, the Polish government has been clear: Poland must become a military superpower in Europe. “Poland will have the most important army in Europe,” said Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak last year. In fact, the army must be so strong that the strength of the army will deter the enemy, thus Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki: “So that we don’t have to fight just because of our own strength.” In addition to all the new equipment, the country wants to increase the current number of soldiers from approximately 180,000 to 300,000.

Poland borders the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad in the northeast and has feared since the Russian invasion that it will be the next victim of Putin’s expansionism if Ukraine loses the war. This year, the country is already spending 3.9 percent of the budget on defense, which is well above the NATO standard of 2 percent.

The Netherlands will barely reach 2 percent this year, but only if military aid to Ukraine is included. Next year, Poland will exceed 4 percent, which is even higher than the US, which fluctuates around 3.5 percent. This makes Poland a NATO leader in terms of defense expenditure.

But the question is whether the next government – which will most likely consist of three opposition parties led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk – will continue defense spending. How much will it cost, and is all that equipment necessary?

Replenishing supplies

Poland is buying so much military equipment now because it simply needs to replenish supplies since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, says Justyna Gotkowska, a defense expert at the Center for Eastern Studies (OSW), a government-funded think tank in Warsaw. Poland sent some three hundred tanks to Ukraine, hundreds of vehicles, fourteen aircraft and dozens of artillery systems. “That is why Poland wants to buy new equipment as quickly as possible,” says Gotkowska. “In addition, Poland sees that the security situation in Central and Eastern Europe is very unpredictable, with Russia likely to attack NATO’s eastern flank in the future.”

That fear is widespread in Poland. Although the PiS government and the opposition parties have been at odds in recent years, all parties unanimously agreed to major defense spending.

“This year defense expenditure is $29 billion (27 billion euros),” says Gotkowska. “That is 3.9 percent of GDP. This will increase to more than 4 percent in the coming years.”

Between 2021 and 2035, Poland will invest around 124 billion euros in the military. “That money is only intended for new equipment and ammunition,” said Gotkowska. “There is hardly any country that spends so much money on the army.”

The next government, which takes over after eight years of PiS, does not appear to be making any major changes in this regard, Tomasz Siemoniak, probably the new Minister of Defense, recently told Politico. “We are not going to cancel any contracts. We don’t want our allies to see Poland as unpredictable.” Experts do expect that some orders will be adjusted here and there.

For example, there are major doubts about the ambition to increase the number of soldiers to 300,000. “Such a large army is impossible given Poland’s demography,” said Piotr Lukasiewicz, former ambassador to Afghanistan and defense specialist. “Poland is struggling with a lack of young people and Defense is not competitive as an employer on the labor market.” Gotkowska also sees heated debates surrounding the figure of 300,000 soldiers. Many think it is too ambitious and that an army of just over 200,000 soldiers is more realistic. According to Lukasiewicz, recruiting personnel remains a challenge: “We will soon have a lot of equipment, but not enough soldiers to use it.”

Four types of tanks

Lukasiewicz further questions Poland’s purchasing strategy. “We will soon have four types of tanks,” he says. Poland buys hundreds of American Abraham tanks and South Korean K2 tanks. The country already has 250 German Leopard tanks and a few Soviet tanks. “We have been using Leopard tanks for twenty years and have experience with them and understand maintenance,” says Lukasiewicz. “But now we are throwing that structure overboard and buying a little bit of everything.” A good strategy? “Perhaps for political reasons, for better relations with the United States and South Korea, but militaries prefer continuity rather than revolutions.”

The area near Kaliningrad also consists of lakes, forests and two-lane roads. Not suitable for heavy tanks. “That will be a gigantic infrastructural effort,” Lukasiewicz predicts. But the Poles are inventive. Lukasiewicz: “We have recently started training again with Polish F-16s that land on public roads.”

Also read
Rzeszów was an ordinary Polish city, now it is the gateway to the war

American soldiers during a military exercise north of the city of Rzeszów. Between 10,000 and 15,000 American soldiers are stationed at and around Rzeszów-Jasionka airport.” class=”dmt-article-suggestion__image” src=”https://images.nrc.nl/dN-spFlapVlMnoivMQCSg6XwmKI=/160×96/smart/filters:no_upscale()/s3/static.nrc.nl/bvhw/files/2023/04/data99759769-4825ef.jpg”/>

Moreover, the incoming government must improve ties with NATO member states. For the sake of public opinion, Poland refused for a long time to deploy German air defense systems on Polish territory. And it took months before a Polish repair center for the German Leopard tanks arrived from Ukraine. There was also criticism from the army’s own leadership: two top generals left just before the elections, reportedly because PiS used the army for the election campaign. Until 2025, President Andrzej Duda, a PiS loyalist, is head of the armed forces and responsible for appointing senior officers.

If the new government manages to strengthen the army and ties with allies, Poland will face a new phase as a defense superpower in Europe. All in all, it will take at least three to five years before all the new weaponry is integrated into the Polish army, Gotkowska predicts. “When the time comes, Poland will have a larger army in terms of equipment than Germany. That would significantly strengthen its position within NATO and the EU.”

To share





Email the editor