Opinion | Trump seems untouchable, but the knives are being sharpened behind his back

Is Donald Trump really that untouchable as a Republican candidate? I do not believe it. His path towards nomination is much less obvious than it seems. The chance of a new term for the coup plotter is smaller than we are told (as stated last Wednesday on the opinion pages of NRC).

First, his position in the opinion polls. Trump could have roughly half of the Republican voters. All things considered, that is quite a low percentage. We are talking about a former president who has apparently been able to swallow his party whole and yet only receives the support of half of this party. Someone who walks away with the nomination should be able to count on more.

Also look at the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to hold primaries on January 15 and 23 respectively (in Iowa caucuses, but that amounts to the same thing for Republicans). In Iowa, Trump may have a large lead over Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, but he has long since used up what he had. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is hot on DeSantis’ heels. In New Hampshire, Haley now occupies a solid second place, behind Trump. Haley has the momentum. She did much better in the debates than the wooden, right-wing radical DeSantis. She is not taking much advantage of Trump yet, but she is rolling up the other candidates. New Hampshire voters like surprises. You can count on that.

Pests

Other developments also indicate that Trump is not that strong at all. It has been increasing in recent months unhinged touched, American for the way he lashes out wildly and rambles on in monologues in which he spews more and more nonsense and dismisses his opponents as “vermin”, ‘vermin’, a term that fits Nazi Germany. The man shows his age (77), a phenomenon that is often ignored due to Biden’s advanced age (81).

Then there are the four trials in which Trump has been indicted. Trump thinks he benefits from milking it as much as possible. But his actions in the trials, directly or through his lawyers, are rather cringeworthy. It is true that this will not upset many of his voters, but it does mean that his legal position becomes even weaker than it already was. I would not be surprised if the testimonies that are now coming loose and the increasing chance of conviction will cost him support.

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Finally, there is the 2025 program that the Trump campaign has revealed. Remarkable, because to persuade voters it is not necessary to say that you are going to fire 50,000 civil servants and replace them with scoundrels, that you are going to prosecute former employees who do not treat you with sufficient respect, and that you are going to use the entire government for revenge to take. Trump’s energy – although somewhat less than before – comes from revenge, anger and a strange kind of messiah display: “I am your retribution”, „I am indicted for you”. The Republican politicians who did not dare to impeach Trump after his coup are too cowardly to speak out openly (although according to various memoirs they seem to laugh at Trump behind his back). But the traditional Republican base – Wall Street, businesspeople, entrepreneurs and ordinary conservatives – are terrified. They realize that Trump is a danger to America. Also look at important governors such as Chris Sununu in New Hampshire, Brian Kemp in Georgia and Mike DeWine in Ohio: they are not Trump fans and unlike Washington followers, they do not hide it.

Provides evidence for this development an article in The New York Times, which reports that the Republican Party’s big backers are moving en masse toward Nikki Haley. That is a significant development. It shows that the part of the Republican Party that is not a sincere and unwavering Trump supporter, or that cowardly follows the populist, recognizes the danger. They realize that Trump’s candidacy significantly increases the chance of a second term for Joe Biden.

Sharpened knives

More importantly, they are starting to realize that any other Republican can beat Joe Biden. In that case, Republicans would control the White House, Congress and the Supreme Court. A golden opportunity to significantly change America, which these Republicans would not like to miss. As soon as Trump’s percentages in the polls start to drop (perhaps already for Iowa and New Hampshire), they will stick the already sharpened knives in his back.

The big Republican backers are moving en masse towards Nikki Haley

Trump’s seemingly untouchable status is an optical illusion. He is an emperor without clothes, a petty narcissist who gives no loyalty and receives no loyalty. Nikki Haley may pop the balloon and everyone will rally behind her. It may be that the power-oriented Republicans have a different one dark horse but I still find it unlikely that Donald Trump will become the Republican candidate.

That’s a prospect that should please anyone who cares about democracy, but for capitalized Democrats it will be a disaster. Anyone other than Trump will beat Biden. The unwillingness or lack of courage to step aside from President Biden, with thanks for services rendered, will prove costly.

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