In Slovakia the party won with a pro-Russian campaign. Are the concerns about a turn to Russia justified?

Is Slovakia turning to Russia? These fears are fueled by the victory of the populist Smer party in the parliamentary elections on Saturday. Former Prime Minister Robert Fico’s party became the largest with 23 percent of the votes, after an anti-European campaign in which he promised to end military aid to neighboring Ukraine. Michal Šimecka’s liberal, pro-European party Progressive Slovakia (PS) followed at some distance with 18 percent.

Slovakia has had a chaotic period of government, in which the corona pandemic, the war in Ukraine, inflation and a wave of disinformation have created the ideal conditions for a populist turnaround. Although the election battle was tense until the end, Fico seems to have scored against expectations even in the big cities with his promises to stop military aid to Ukraine and his criticism of the sanctions against Russia.

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Michal Šimecka of Progressive Slovakia will face populist former Prime Minister Robert Fico in the elections this weekend. ” class=”dmt-article-suggestion__image” src=”https://images.nrc.nl/F3XnEPZVUBaHpWl-ce10PB6BnMg=/160×96/smart/filters:no_upscale()/s3/static.nrc.nl/images/gn4/stripped/data105849286-6b864a.jpg”/>

“Robert Fico defeated Slovakia. The version of the country that the majority of the nation imagined after the Velvet Revolution of 1989,” writes editor-in-chief Beata Balogová of the newspaper SME. “On Saturday he was able to convince enough people that liberalism and human rights are greater threats than widespread corruption and his admiration for Putin’s regime.”

Ultranationalisten

However, Fico does need other parties for a majority. A key role in the formation will be reserved for Hlas, the social democratic party of Peter Pellegrini and a breakaway from Smer. When Fico was forced to resign in 2018 following mass protests over the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée, Pellegrini took over as prime minister. With 15 percent of the votes, Hlas is now in third place and is needed for a coalition. Pellegrini has so far kept his options open, but it is widely believed that his party would prefer a partnership with Smer over the more socially liberal PS.

MEP and Smer co-founder Monika Beňová also expects Fico to form a coalition government with Hlas, report Slovak media. To gain a majority, Smer will probably also collaborate with the ultranationalist Slovak National Party, according to Beňová. That party also formed a coalition with Smer in 2006 and leader Andrej Danko, who has openly pro-Russian views and is known for his tough stances against Roma and LGBT people, has been talking about this coalition as a dream scenario for months.

Peace from the east

Fico is Slovakia’s longest-serving prime minister with three previous terms. His previous governments have been accused of corruption, collaboration with the mafia and violation of the independence of the judiciary. He is harshly critical of LGBT rights and migration and is an admirer of Viktor Orbán, the autocratic Prime Minister of Hungary. “War always comes from the west,” Fico said at a meeting earlier this week, “and freedom and peace always come from the east.”

The openly pro-Russian positions are new for the former prime minister, but strike a chord in a country where many voters grew up during the Soviet era and where the internet is flooded with pro-Kremlin propaganda. “It may be that Slovakia becomes a second Hungary,” says political analyst Grigorij Meseznikov, “Maybe less inventive, less visionary. But Orbán would have an ally.”

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The question is whether the soup is really eaten as hot as it is served. Fico’s policy will depend on the coalition and analysts point out that Slovakia’s fragmented political landscape offers fewer opportunities for a radical change than Hungary, where Viktor Orbán has had an absolute majority since 2010 and therefore political free rein.

Fico also blew up in Slovakia during his previous terms, they say analysts, but ultimately adopted a pragmatic attitude in Brussels and avoided unnecessary clashes. Slovakia is still very dependent on European support and Fico cannot fulfill its promises for economic improvement without help from the EU, including the 6.4 billion euros from the corona recovery fund that the country has been promised.

However, the support of Orbán and possibly other nationalist leaders could now embolden him. There will be elections in Poland on October 15, and if the ruling party PiS (Law and Justice) wins again there, this could strengthen the populist, illiberal trend in Central Europe and further undermine democratization in the region. This could have major consequences for the European Union’s common foreign policy towards Ukraine, which could weaken support for Kyiv.

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