Despite military ‘stalemate’ and pressure from allies, Zelensky is not considering negotiating with Russia

This week marks one year since Ukrainian forces liberated the city of Kherson. So shortly before the start of the first winter of the war, the expulsion of Russian troops from the southern city and across the Dnipro was a huge boost for the besieged Ukrainian population. But twelve months later, it is clear that the liberation of Kherson, in terms of the reconquest of occupied territory, was also the last major achievement for the Ukrainians to cling to for the time being.

The counter-offensive that Kyiv launched in several places five months ago has caused thousands of casualties and a lot of material damage to the Russian army. But the hoped-for Ukrainian advance foundered between the minefields and trenches along the thousand-kilometer front line. Or, as the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, put it in an essay at the end of last week and into an interview The Economist put it, the two armies are so balanced in terms of their technological capabilities that a stalemate has arisen.

Zaluzhny’s honest analysis of the war situation reverberated in Kyiv for days. On Saturday, Ukraine’s highest military officer was told by the entourage of President Volodymyr Zelensky himself: according to Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Ihor Zhovkva Zaluzhny’s conclusion “facilitates” the work of the aggressor. And besides, Zhovkva added on national television his comments are creating “panic” among Ukraine’s allies.

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Although Zelensky himself continues to insist that he believes in the Ukrainian victory like no other, as the president did last week in Time, civilians and tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have also seen that there has been little or no movement on the front lines in recent months. The hoped-for turnaround after the arrival of Western cruise missiles and hundreds of Western tanks and infantry fighting vehicles did not materialize – and the delivery of F-16s is still a long way off. Meanwhile, being American figures in August that more than 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 120,000 injured since the invasion.

Attacks on infrastructure

Now it’s almost mid-November, and as temperatures drop, concerns are growing in Ukraine that Moscow is about to launch a new large-scale campaign against crucial infrastructure with hundreds of attack drones and missiles. Kharkiv was already under fire on Friday with dozens of drones – one of the largest attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure in weeks. Last winter, the Russians often aimed their missiles and drones at power stations across the country, leaving millions of Ukrainian citizens in the cold and dark.

Surveys among the Ukrainian population show a slow change in mood. Although out polls from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology shows that confidence in the Ukrainian armed forces remains high (94 percent), confidence in other government institutions is declining. Confidence in President Zelensky fell from 91 percent in May 2022 to 76 percent in October this year; confidence in the government plummeted from 74 to 39 percent in the same period. Only 21 percent of citizens still trust parliament – a year and a half ago that was 58 percent.

According to The New York Times Another Ukrainian survey shows that the percentage of citizens in favor of negotiations with Moscow has risen from 10 to 14 since the start of the all-out invasion.

Pressure from allies is increasing

It appears that pressure from Western allies on Kyiv is also gradually increasing to think about possible negotiations with Moscow. At least that is what the American channel NBC reported last weekend, based on statements by several anonymous senior US government officials. According to NBC, these “delicate” conversations would not only reflect the military situation on the ground, but also the political situation in Europe and the US; The talks would, among other things, discuss what Ukraine would have to give up in order to reach an agreement with Russia.

President Zelensky firmly rejects the idea of ​​negotiating with Moscow. After a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Zelensky said in Kyiv: “None of our partners are putting pressure on us to sit down with Russia, talk to them, or give them anything.” .” And in a television interview with NBC an emotional Zelensky said on Sunday: “We do not want any dialogue with terrorists. Their word is worthless.”

President Zelensky also does not think that the military battle on the ground has reached an impasse, as his top general Zaluzhny said last week. “Time has passed, people are tired. But this is not a stalemate,” Zelensky said. He did acknowledge that a “difficult situation” has arisen. He attributed this largely to the lack of air superiority at the front.

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In the meantime, the military battle continues on several fronts. According to Kyiv, the Ukrainian army is still on the offensive, including in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia and around the occupied town of Bachmut in the Donbas. But the territorial gain is relatively small. Russian forces in turn carry out their own attacks elsewhere in the Donbas, including at Avdiivka.

Things recently went horribly wrong on the Ukrainian side. Last Friday, a ceremony at which a group of Ukrainian soldiers were presented with awards was hit by a Russian missile. On Monday, Kyiv acknowledged that nineteen soldiers were killed. According to Zelensky A criminal investigation has now been initiated into the incident. Gatherings where many soldiers gather in one place are generally avoided due to the high risks. Zelensky also called it “a tragedy that could have been prevented” at the weekend.

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