A hot transfer summer awaits at the top, with an extra ticket for the Champions League

In a room at the bottom of the Galgenwaard Stadium, the dissatisfaction on the face of Ajax director Edwin van der Sar could be read on a Thursday in November 2018. The so-called ‘change agenda’ for Dutch football did not lead to a plan he hoped for. “Other steps could have had more results for the future of Dutch football,” Van der Sar said diplomatically at a press conference.

Major reforms were not forthcoming. No ban on artificial grass in professional football. No other Eredivisie format with sixteen instead of eighteen clubs, as Ajax wanted. No substantial redistribution of television funds. While change was considered necessary given the shaky state of Dutch club football.

Due to the mediocre performance in Europe, the Eredivisie dropped to fourteenth place in the UEFA coefficient rankings earlier that year. This ranking determines, based on results in the five years before, how many European tickets a country receives and for which tournaments. The Netherlands lost places due to the decline. Goal of the change agenda: to conquer eighth place.

As of Thursday, the Netherlands is sixth, as a result of a steady advance that started in 2018. Portugal has been surpassed, after Feyenoord’s victory over AS Roma and Sporting’s defeat against Juventus. It is the first time since 2001 that the Netherlands has ended a season in the top six.

It leads to a new, more attractive reality at the top of the Eredivisie. While only the national champion now receives a direct ticket for the group stage of the lucrative Champions League, this will also apply to second place from the 2024-2025 season. And the number three can qualify for the elite tournament through the preliminary rounds. The total number of European starting permits will increase from five to six.

The change agenda, previously received with much skepticism, is now given as one of the explanations for the boom period. It was decided at the time that Eredivisie clubs will be obliged to cooperate if a club that is active in Europe wants to reschedule a match in order to allow more rest time, emphasizes Jan de Jong, director of the umbrella organization Eredivisie CV. This is often used. According to him, the later entry of European playing clubs into the KNVB Cup and a bonus scheme for natural grass (instead of artificial grass) also contributed to a stronger competition.

A mountain of points

But the turning point was Erik ten Hag’s Ajax – the semi-final in the Champions League in 2019 yielded a mountain of points. And woke up other clubs. What also helped was the introduction of the Conference League, a tournament that had its premiere last season. This turned out well for the Netherlands: Feyenoord reached the final in 2022, AZ is now in the quarter-finals. An important detail for the Dutch catch-up race: victories and draws in the Conference League (third tournament) and Europa League (second tournament) have the same value for the European rankings as in the Champions League.

Football administrators call it a collective achievement of the clubs, which is partly underlined by calculations. Ajax stands out in terms of its contribution to the total number of Dutch points over the past five years: 33 percent. Followed by PSV (22 percent) and Feyenoord and AZ, both with 19 percent.

The question is how top clubs anticipate, in view of the two direct Champions League tickets from 2024. It is expected that Ajax and PSV in particular will invest heavily next summer. The risk of missing out is smaller due to the extra place, and that justifies higher investments in transfers and salaries.

After all, the Champions League is the cash cow, to which the other European tournaments are in stark contrast. For comparison: Ajax earned 65.5 million from last season’s Champions League campaign (elimination in the eighth finals), while Conference League finalist Feyenoord received only 14.3 million.

Jaap van Baar, financial director of PSV, says that they can take “a little more risk” next summer to grab one of the two guaranteed Champions League tickets next season. This is due to the fact that the design of the Champions League will change dramatically from 2024, with more clubs (36), more matches (8) per club in the group phase and increasing revenues.

“All European funds will increase by 30 to 35 percent,” says Van Baar, who is involved in the distribution of income from European tournaments from 2024 through the European Club Association (interest group of clubs). “We will take that into account in how next season we will be there as PSV.”

Fear of lopsided growth

In the new Champions League format, Dutch teams are guaranteed an amount “between 70 and 90 million” upon placement, Eredivisie director De Jong said two years ago. NRC. There is a fear that this increase will increase the imbalance between the top (particularly Ajax) and the rest of the Eredivisie.

PSV is in a position to invest soon after it put its finances in order during the winter break by selling Cody Gakpo and Noni Madueke, which together yielded roughly 90 million euros. In order not to fall further behind Ajax financially, PSV is very keen to qualify for the Champions League – in which it was last active in 2018.

Ajax, in turn, will be keen to regain the leading position in the Netherlands, now that this season has been disappointing in terms of sport. The club has built up a large war chest, its total equity amounted to 274 million in the last half-year figures. The new director of football affairs Sven Mislintat knows that the willingness to sign – and stay – with (top) players is greater with the prospect of Champions League football.

For Ajax, the extra ticket is a safety net for the heavy financial situation, with a player budget (salary house) of 74 million last season. If the club has a poor sporting season, such as this year, Ajax will be less affected if it manages to qualify for the Champions League through second (or third) place.

Feyenoord’s equity

Investing next summer will be more complicated for Feyenoord. The club is financially less capable than its competition – its equity is only 1 million. With a view to the looming national title and therefore likely Champions League income next season, more will soon be possible. At the same time, Feyenoord is considering becoming the owner of the stadium, which requires money – which could be at the expense of investing in players.

“Of course we also push our limits,” says Robert Eenhoorn, general manager of AZ. But they won’t go beyond it any further, he adds. “If we have to make a difference in money, that will be difficult.” The financial options available to the competition are too great for that.

AZ continues to adhere to the concept of training, developing and selling players. „All in going to reach the Champions League would not be wise.” This also applies to FC Twente. “To immediately take more risks and try to get there is too opportunistic,” says technical director Jan Streuer.

The expectation is that the Netherlands can maintain this position in the UEFA coefficient rankings for more than one season, given the robust build-up of points over the past five years. There is already a small buffer compared to Portugal, and France’s fifth place is even in sight. However, there is a risk that more Dutch clubs will soon enter the Champions League. “You have to get the same number of points again at a higher level,” says Eenhoorn. “Otherwise you can easily relapse.”

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