Escalate or reconcile? The EU is struggling with Viktor Orbán

What to do with Viktor Orbán: reconcile or escalate? While Brussels is cautiously working on a compromise on financial support for Ukraine, the European Parliament (EP) wants to sharpen the tone towards the Hungarian Prime Minister. This Thursday, a large majority of MEPs are calling for the European Union to take steps to deprive Hungary of its voting rights within the EU. The EP also threatens the Commission with legal action over the release of EU funds to Hungary.

The resolution is only a call and not binding, but it does show that the EP continues its hard line against Orbán and has no interest in reconciliation with the repeatedly obstructive EU country. In December, a veto by Orbán prevented the EU from reaching an agreement on financially supporting Ukraine. It was a hard blow for the country at war, which urgently needs financial support – especially now that support from the US is also in doubt.

Financial envelopes

This means that EU leaders are very keen to quickly reach an agreement on support for Ukraine, preferably with Orbán on board. And so Brussels is working hard on a compromise, and it is striking that Hungary is taking a much more constructive position in the new year. Last week, the Hungarian government hinted that it could agree to the support package, if it is divided into annual financial envelopes that it wants to be able to block again and again.

There is little interest in giving Orbán even more veto moments in Brussels

Orbán himself also suddenly said on Tuesday evening that his country can agree to aid, provided it is arranged outside the regular EU budget. The fact that the Hungarian Prime Minister now seems willing to negotiate is seen as positive by diplomats in Brussels. At the same time, the additional Hungarian requirements are not easy to swallow. The idea behind the support package was precisely to give Ukraine long-term stability, which is weakened by an annual decision moment. There is also little interest in giving Orbán even more veto moments in Brussels.

There are now cautious calls to give Hungary the option of an ’emergency brake’, which although the aid cannot be stopped, but must be discussed again. EU ambassadors will continue their talks in Brussels this Thursday and difficult negotiations will follow in the coming weeks in the run-up to an EU summit on February 1.

Speaking to the European Parliament on Wednesday, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was “confident” that “a solution with 27 (Member States) is possible.” Von der Leyen also defended the decision at the end of December to release billions in EU funds for Hungary. In recent years, Brussels blocked tens of billions in EU funds for Hungary due to concerns about the rule of law. In December, she released ten billion of this – just before an important EU summit that Orbán threatened to sabotage, making the accusation of blackmail immediately sound.

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But according to Von der Leyen, the decision was only a response to legal reforms that Hungary implemented last year that strengthen the independence of the judiciary. “This is what we asked for – and Hungary delivered,” said Von der Leyen.

Harsh criticism

It was not enough to convince the EP. MEPs from major political groups – including Von der Leyen’s own Christian Democratic party – expressed harsh criticism on Wednesday of the decision, which they said was purely politically motivated. VVD MEP and acting leader of the European Liberals Malik Azmani called it “incredible” that “those who are supposed to protect the EU’s financial interests are now giving in to blackmail.”

This Thursday, a large majority of the EP will vote in favor of preparing legal action against the Commission. The European Parliament also demands full transparency about the grounds on which the money was released.

It shows how much Von der Leyen has to walk on eggshells regarding Hungary. The German is expected to announce sometime in the coming weeks that she would like another term as Commission President. Increasing the conflict with Orbán, who recently conducted a harsh poster campaign against Von der Leyen in his own country, is not strategically useful. But at the same time, Von der Leyen also needs support from parties in the European Parliament, which has been complaining for years that the Commission is taking far too little strict action against Hungary.

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