Due to the corona infection, since last year, a sudden lockout had to be implemented in the entire country. Today, after one year, we are standing again in the same situation when the fear of the second wave of corona infection in the whole country is deepening. Let us know what are the seven reasons of concern before the country after one year.

1. Below the graph of recovering patients: There has been a steady decline in the number of patients recovering from infection every day after March 8 in the country. On this day, 16,606 patients were discharged while 15,353 new patients were reported. After this, the difference of these two figures recorded every day is increasing, more new patients are coming out while less patients are getting cured. The number of patients recovering daily from the last ten days was between 17 to 29 thousand, but new cases were reported every day between 28 thousand and 47 thousand. Such situations were seen in the country between April and September last year when the first wave of corona was going on in the country.

2. Concerning CFR: According to the Covid-19 data study of the Center for Excellence in Space Sciences in India (CESSI), the case fatality rate i.e. CFR in the country was 1.36 percent as on March 22. If compared to this time of last year, then there is no significant decline in this, which is worrying. The CFR on March 22, 2020 was 1.73 percent which is almost equal to the recent one. That is, if the increase in CFR is recorded then it will mean that more number of deaths have started. The CFR gives an indication of how many of those being infected are being killed. Having more than one percent of it indicates a dangerous situation, it is worth mentioning that after the same situation last year, the government had to lockout from 24 March.

3. The rate of infection has increased : According to ‘Our World in Data’, an independent firm that monitors corona infection across the world, the rate of infected outbreaks is 3 in all the samples being tested in India right now. 5 is ten percent. This means that up to five per cent of those who are undergoing corona examination in the fear of whether they are positive or not, are getting confirmed infection. This was the same situation last year, in the same situation lockout was implemented across the country. The thing to keep in mind here is that only those people who are feeling any symptoms in their body reach for the examination. Whereas in Corona infection disease, a large number of people do not feel any symptoms, that is, such people are inadvertently transmitting the infection to their own people.

4. Fewer tests are being done: Last year was the second wave of corona from August 18 to September 26, during which less than one million tests were being done daily for the first 24 days. But after the 25th day, between 10 lakh and 14 lakh daily checks were done every day till the middle of October, which went down again by December. If you look at the data of ICMR, then from 20 February to the next 27 days, every day in the country only a little more than seven lakh to nine lakh checks have been done. The figure reached one million on the 28th day, there has been some increase in daily investigations since then, but it is not continuous. On Tuesday, only a little over nine lakh samples were tested in the country.

5. Increased burden on hospitals: In January, the number of active patients or under-treated patients in India had come down to less than 2 lakh, which is now treating 3.45 lakh patients, which is increasing burden on hospitals. This has a direct effect on the increasing workload on the health workers. Also, it will also have a direct impact in the supply of essential resources like ventilators in the country.

6. Restrictions in states: At present, complete lockout is in place in some districts of Maharashtra to deal with the increasing infection. A second wave has been officially announced in this state. Similar is the case in Karnataka, where night curfew and other stringent restrictions have been imposed to deal with the second wave. On the other hand, night curfew has also been imposed in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Punjab. At the same time, Section 144 has been implemented in many states and union territories including Delhi-NCR so that more people do not gather. In the event of such partial sanctions, the challenge before the center is that there should be no need to implement these restrictions nationwide.

7. More infections in eight regions of the country: At present, 8 states are participating in 80.4 percent of the new cases of infection being recorded in the country. According to the Ministry of Health, Maharashtra accounted for 58 percent of the total cases reported in the country and Punjab with the same percentage. At the same time, 12–12 percent of new cases were registered from Kerala and Chhattisgarh and 10–10 percent of cases were reported from Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.


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