The Indian economy will be the third largest economy in the world by 2050, after China and the United States. According to a study published in the medical journal Lancet, India’s economy will remain at this position until the year 2100. India was the seventh largest economy in 2017. Lancet reckons 2017 as the base year, saying that by 2030 India will become the fourth largest economy behind the US, China, Japan and will later overtake Japan in 2050. India currently ranks fifth among the world’s largest economies. Right behind this are France and Britain.

The epidemic should not fall anywhere high on expectations

The Modi government’s hopes are also like this. In May this year, Rajiv Kumar, vice chairman of NITI Aayog, said that India has to become the third largest economy by 2047. However, current estimates are less optimistic than some earlier estimates of the economic downturn caused by the corona virus epidemic. Just before the outbreak of the epidemic, a study by the Japan Center for Economic Research in December last year stated that India would overtake Japan to become the third largest economy by 2029. The Government of India has also set its ambitious goal of becoming a $ 5 trillion economy in 2025. 

There will be a huge decline in working age population in China-India

The Lancet paper warned that along with steady growth in Nigeria, there would be a steep decline in the working-age population in China and India, although India would retain the top position. By 2100 India was estimated to still have the highest working age population in the world, followed by Nigeria, China and the United States. Other countries that rose above the global ranking by GDP were Australia and Israel. Despite a steep decline in forecasts for the century, Lancet said Japan would remain the fourth largest economy in 2100.

Lancet’s major findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will lead to a decline in fertility and population growth. Many countries have lower TFR (total fertility rates) than replacement levels. Many countries including China and India will also have economic, social, environmental and geopolitical effects.


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