The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that if India takes rapid reform measures, the growth rate could reach 8.8 per cent in FY 2021-22. At the same time, the IMF said that during the financial year 2020-21, the growth rate may fall by 10.3 percent.
In a special conversation with India Today, IMF Chief Economist Geeta Gopinath said that the Indian economy has the potential to recover rapidly. So it is expected that from the second quarter the situation will start changing. He said that 8.8 percent of GDP growth forecast for FY 2021-2022 is not a difficult figure. India can surprise if the right steps are taken.
Long effect of lockdown
He said that economic activities had come to a standstill due to the Corona epidemic. Now, as industries are gaining momentum, the economy is getting improved. He said that except a few countries, Corona has hurt the world economy. India is a very large country by population and the economy has suffered the most due to the lockdown.
India can be shocked
Government has taken several steps for investment
In response to a question, Geeta Gopinath said that no one had thought about this epidemic. That is why every country is fighting this epidemic in its own way. After the introduction of the vaccine, there will be a rapid recovery in the economy. He said that the second quarter is showing improvement, import-export figures are improving.
Geeta Gopinath’s advice to the government
With this, the economist said that India will have to take steps for rapid improvement in the next two quarters. Focus has to be on increasing demand. Apart from this, there is a need to deliver money in the hands of poor and laborers. Also, steps have to be taken to control inflation. According to Geeta Gopinath, the Government of India needs to work on direct income support to increase the demand in the economy. Apart from this, the industry affected by the Corona crisis also needs to be supported.
Will India lag behind Bangladesh in per capita GDP? In response to this question, he said that it has been estimated by looking at the current figures, but India has the ability to recover faster in the economy than Bangladesh. He said that the impact of Corona on countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam has reduced. One, these countries are much less in population than India and they have taken their own steps to overcome the corona.
He told that the major reason for the improvement in China’s economy is that this country did a lot of tests in the beginning to control the corona. After that, when the world was struggling with Corona crisis, China was exporting medical acupments on a large scale. Due to which the economy did not deteriorate.