Fourth Pillar: 2024 Rehearsals Have Begun, All Eyes On Gujarat Polls: Preparation phase begins, Himachal Pradesh polls have already been announced, and Gujarat elections have been announced. Before the elections, as always, the BJP and Modi’s electoral chess move was the announcement of various government projects by Narendra Modi in Gujarat. 10,000, 20,000, and 40,000 crore project announcements, meetings with various business meetings, etc. So Modiji was in Gujarat, and he will return with the announcement, the Election Commission will announce the election day, known table. But before that, God’s sign, 143 people died, including 45 children, when the hanging bridge over the Machu river collapsed. Modi ji cried, but till now it is far from touching a director of that Oreva company, no FE has been filed in their name. ED CBI, Vigilance department bank eyes are not east, south, west.
Where is the courage to look at Gujarat? Modiskha Jaysukhbhai Patel’s Orewa group got the bridge maintenance and renovation contract after not having a day’s experience. According to new information, they also did not do the work, a smaller local company was given the responsibility of the work, and this subcontract was not in the original contract. Anyway, in all these circumstances 2024 rang out. Then in Karnataka, Telangana, there are allegations against the BJP of buying and selling MLAs with 50 crores. Meanwhile Tripura, Meghalaya, Manipur. BJP is worried enough about Tripura in the Northeast.
Then mega polls, in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh. When all these elections are over in 2024, the question will be, what time is the Modi government? So the political frenzy has started, and the election bell has rung. But Gujarat is a different case, the importance of the Gujarat election is totally different. It’s not that Gujarat is a big state, and it’s not that the government will fall if Gujarat loses. But Gujarat is number 1 in the country, number two in the country, and the best of the economy are currently residents of Gujarat. Since 95/96, BJP has had such a record of continuous rule in Gujarat, no other state has such a record. 26 Lok Sabha seats 26 in 2014, also in 2019. Not only that, BJP’s vote percentage in two Lok Sabha elections? Around 60 percent. Only once, only once did the BJP look helpless, in the 2017 elections.
Hardik Patel, Patidar leader, Jignesh Mewani Dalit leader, Congress united campaign, GST injury on Gujarati Baniyas, all in all, BJP was looking bad. Even after the specified day, Modiji himself took the reins of the campaign, along with almost the entire cabinet, including Amit Shah, because Gujarat is Modi Shah’s birthplace, work ground, and Gujarat is the home of the new BJP Zero Two. The cradle of Hinduism, the cradle of Muslim hatred. Gujarat is the laboratory test of BJP’s politics of intimidation, and governance with police vigilance. In the 2017 result, 92, the BJP got a majority of 99, the first time in a long time that it fell into double digits. And if you get less than 10? Congress 77, and get 10 more? What would have happened? 10/15 MLA buying and selling is such a big job, but BJP’s face was burning. Modiji cried after the news of victory that day, tears in Modiji’s eyes in front of party MLAs. Wept for joy at coming back from the brink of defeat. Since that day, Amit Shah Modiji has continued to prepare for the 2022 elections. Yes, caste Hindus, gang-rape accused released from jail, dessuddha chichikkar, so what? Message loud and clear to the horribly Muslim-hating Hindus of Gujarat, we are against the Midas. Yes, they speak this language. The flood of investment has flowed, what do you want to say? Land? Electricity? Tax exemption, deb. Invest. Allocation for central projects has increased. But are Modi-Shah confident? No, the swing did not decrease but increased. Coming to that point, first, let’s talk about the new factors of this election.
The first new factor is Up. UP has won a few municipal seats. But their location across the state? How effective will Kejriwal’s campaign be? Where is the local weighty leader? In Punjab, they started working with Delhi but in Gujarat? They are brand new. But in practice, they are being discussed. Last time BJP got 49% votes, Congress 41%. Both parties have a solid base in Gujarat, with the Congress swinging from 36 to 42, and the BJP from 1995/96 hovering around 45 to 61%. When Narendra Modi himself is the candidate, the Lok Sabha vote is 61/62, but if he is not, it is 46/49%. But not much less than that. This time not only Congress but also BJP is upset with this new factor. If AAP eats 10% of the anti-BJP votes following a very simple equation, then Modi-Shah Maj ma, Kem che, ma che. Be happy. But does the vote run in a straight line? Is human motivation so easy to understand? If AAP cuts BJP’s votes? That is, print Lakshmi Ganesh on the money, said Kejriwal. What kind of person is Sarsheful in the eyes of BJP leaders? But the man’s eyes are on the polls. How much does it reflect in Beniyad’s mind? So? If AAP gets equal votes from BJP, if less than Congress, BJP gets more votes? If UP gets stuck in that 2/3% vote? This research is going on in Gujarat. Among them, the Morbi accident has brought the BJP leaders into trouble, unable to find a way to control the damage.
On the other hand, Ahmed Patel was the front name of Congress till the last time, he is not there. Muslim votes will go elsewhere because he is not there. After Hardik Patel defected to the BJP, Jagdish Thakur, a Congress leader from the Koli tribe, took over. Formerly an MP from Patan, he has started a separate campaign in the state. In Saurashtra last time BJP won several seats with a very small margin, this time Congress has emphasized that AAP is also cutting BJP’s votes there. In Himachal Pradesh, 30 small and big BJP leaders have already resigned, there was talk of several BJP MLAs getting tickets for this Gujarat election, but Modi-Shah has kept them for now. All in all, the voting market is hot.
No, no survey has arrived yet, I mean election survey, nothing like that. But CSDS, the Center for the Study of Developing Societies has done an economic survey. What was found from there must have made wide folds on Modi-Shah’s forehead? In their economic survey, they asked what is the most important thing in your mind while voting in this election. 51%, yes 51% people said price gouging, ever-increasing prices of goods became a headache for them.
This same question was asked during the previous elections as well. Then this percentage was 15%, but this time it is just the opposite, instead of five, 51% of people say that they will have this price increase in mind while voting, then? Next thought unemployment, unemployment. 15% of the people said that they will have the question of unemployment. More worryingly, about 70% of people will have financial metrics in mind. No, not Hinduism, not Ram Mandir, not Mia Musharraf, price rise, unemployment will be on the mind. So Modi-Amit Shah has got the signal. Now see how they handle this problem. Or will Kejriwal solve their problems? So this tension will build till the last ball, but needless to say that all the time, one eye of the BJP, Congress, journalists, or reviewers will be on AAP.